Oil price shocks and yield curve dynamics in emerging markets
نویسندگان
چکیده
In a local projections framework, we study the impact of oil price shocks, based on refined approach to disentangle movements, dynamics entire yield curve in nineteen emerging economies with different positions market. Responses term structure factors market shocks are shown differ conditional not only underlying sources that drive price, but also oil-dependence these economies. particular, find risk put upward pressure level, slope, and curvature interest rates across board. Supply-driven markets cause rise level oil-importing more significantly, yet downward slope is pronounced oil-exporting countries. Demand-driven have significant persistent Furthermore, effect precautionary demand factor countries vis-à-vis oil-exporters. Significance, direction, duration our results may guide monetary policymakers as well international investors portfolio hedging decisions.
منابع مشابه
The Economic Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Emerging Markets
Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact o...
متن کاملOil Price Shocks, Inventories and Macroeconomic Dynamics
This paper employs disaggregated manufacturing data to investigate the causes of the time delay between an increase in oil prices and the following slowdown in economic activity. VAR results show that, unlike aggregate GDP, the effect of an oil price shock on new motor vehicles production shows up immediately and is statistically significantly. After one quarter, similar patterns are observed f...
متن کاملOil Price Shocks and Inflation
The historical record Figure 1 plots the price of oil relative to the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCEPI) together with the core PCEPI inflation rate. (Core measures of inflation exclude food and energy prices.) The figure shows that the price of oil jumped sharply twice in the 1970s, as did inflation. But this relationship appears to have deteriorated over the latter par...
متن کاملInvestigating the Sustainability of Asian, European and American Regional Gas Markets in Response to Currency and Crude Oil Price Shocks
In this study, we model the long-term and dynamic relationships between spot oil and exchange rates and gas prices by applying the Markov switching vector self-regression model in three regional gas markets in USA, Europe and Asia. Price behavior is analyzed using Bayesian estimation to take into account the transition from an existing relationship and the delayed and recurring effects of pric...
متن کاملOil price shocks and trade imbalances
a r t i c l e i n f o JEL classification: F1 F4 Q43 N75 Keywords: Oil price shock Trade balance VAR Granger non-causality test Gregory-Hansen cointegration test This study aims to examine whether a large part of the variability of trade balances and their oil and non-oil components is associated with oil price fluctuations. The long-run causality running from oil price to overall, oil and non-o...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Review of Economics & Finance
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1059-0560', '1873-8036']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.065